Recent Advances in Predictability Studies in China （1999-2002）   总被引：10，自引：2，他引：8  

MU Mu  DUAN Wansuo  CHOU Jifan 《大气科学进展》2004,21(3):437-443

Since the last International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) General Assembly (1999), the predictability studies in China have made further progress during the period of 1999-2002. Firstly, three predictability sub-problems in numerical weather and climate prediction are classified, which are concerned with the maximum predictability time, the maximum prediction error, and the maximum allowable initial error, and then they are reduced into three nonlinear optimization problems. Secondly, the concepts of the nonlinear singular vector (NSV) and conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) are proposed,which have been utilized to study the predictability of numerical weather and climate prediction. The results suggest that the nonlinear characteristics of the motions of atmosphere and oceans can be revealedby NSV and CNOP. Thirdly, attention has also been paid to the relations between the predictability and spatial-temporal scale, and between the model predictability and the machine precision, of which the investigations disclose the importance of the spatial-temporal scale and machine precision in the study of predictability. Also the cell-to-cell mapping is adopted to analyze globally the predictability of climate,which could provide a new subject to the research workers. Furthermore, the predictability of the summer rainfall in China is investigated by using the method of correlation coefficients. The results demonstrate that the predictability of summer rainfall is different in different areas of China. Analysis of variance, which is one of the statistical methods applicable to the study of predictability, is also used to study the potential predictability of monthly mean temperature in China, of which the conclusion is that the monthly mean temperature over China is potentially predictable at a statistical significance level of 0.10. In addition,in the analysis of the predictability of the T106 objective analysis/forecasting field, the variance and the correlation coefficient are calculated to explore the distribution characteristics of the mean-square errors.Finally, the predictability of short-term climate prediction is investigated by using statistical methods or numerical simulation methods. It is demonstrated that the predictability of short-term climate in China depends not only on the region of China being investigated, but also on the time scale and the atmospheric internal dynamical process.  相似文献   

南海台风模式对“海燕”移动路径的预报     

陈子通  张诚忠  黄燕燕  冯业荣  钟水新  戴光丰  徐道生  杨兆礼 《气象学报》2014,72(4):678-689

超强台风"海燕"是2013年最著名的台风。分析中国南海台风模式对"海燕"整个过程的预报,发现模式基本预报出"海燕"的快速穿过菲律宾和登陆越南后北翘东折的移动路径,但也存在一些不足,例如强度预报偏弱。通过高分辨率数值模拟分析了"海燕"的变化机理,发现高层暖心、高中低层一致东风气流是其超强发展和快速西移的主要特征。进一步的模式预报试验中,探讨了模拟技术对提高台风预报水平的影响作用。分析结果表明,准确的模式物理参数化(如边界层、积云对流和地形参数化)和模式初始大气构造等,以及提高模式分辨率有助于提高台风预报水平。  相似文献   

An Overview of Nowcasting Development, Applications, and Services in the Hong Kong Observatory          下载免费PDF全文

LI Ping-Wah  WONG Wai-Kin  CHEUNG Ping  YEUNG Hon-Yin 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2014,28(5):859-876

The Hong Kong Observatory （HKO） has been developing a suite of nowcasting systems to support op- erations of the forecasting center and to provide a variety of nowcasting services for the general public and specialized users. The core system is named the Short-range Warnings of Intense Rainstorm of Localized Systems （SWIRLS）, which is a radar-based nowcasting system mainly for the automatic tracking of the movement of radar echoes and the short-range Quantitative Precipitation Forecast （QPF）. The differential, integral （or variational）, and object-oriented tracking algorithms were developed and integrated into the nowcasting suite. In order to predict severe weather associated with intense thunderstorms, such as high gust, hail, and lightning, SWIRLS was enhanced to SWIRLS-II by introduction of a number of physical models, especially the icing physics as well as the thermodynamics of the atmosphere. SWIRLS-Ⅱ was further enhanced with non-hydrostatic, high resolution numerical models for extending the forecast range up to 6h ahead. Meanwhile, SWIRLS was also modified for providing nowcasting services for aviation community and specialized users. To take into account the rapid development of lightning events, ensemble nowcasting techniques such as time-lagged and weighted average ensemble approaches were also adopted in the nowcasting system. Apart from operational uses in Hong Kong, SWIRLS/SWIRLS-Ⅱ was also exported to other places to participate in several international events such as the WMO/WWRP Forecast Demon- stration Project （FDP） during the Beijing 2008 Olympics Games and the Shanghai Expo 2010. Meanwhile, SWIRLS has also been transferred to various regional meteorological organizations for establishing their nowcasting infrastructure. This paper summarizes the history and the technologies of SWIRLS/SWIRLS-Ⅱ and its variants and the associated nowcasting applications and services provided by the HKO since the mid 1990s.  相似文献   

Weather extremes and street life in India—Implications of Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping as a new tool for semi-quantitative impact assessment and ranking of adaptation measures     

《Global Environmental Change》2014

The potential impacts of progressing climate change are alarming. Some adverse consequences are now unavoidable and adaptation measures are increasingly needful. This poses enormous challenges for emerging megacities in the Global South, which barely manage in current weather conditions. This paper introduces Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping as a new tool for structured, semi-quantitative assessments of climate change impacts and adaptation measures.Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping is used to evaluate differences in sensitivities to heatwaves and rainstorms across socio-economic groups and for the ranking of useful adaptation options, based on 188 individual interviews to the impacts of extreme weather events in Hyderabad, India. The results of this multi-stakeholder assessment indicate that rainstorms affect low-income residents more than heatwaves, while the opposite is true for medium-income respondents. The latter are also less seriously affected by extreme weather in general. Profession, though, not income determines the kind of impact that people feel most affected by. Individual characteristics like age and gender do not significantly explain differences in the data, but religion does. This is because, in Hyderabad, Muslims live in the older, less serviced and more affected parts of the city. However, semi-quantitative scenario analyses suggest that, under future climate change, many parts of the city will become increasingly exposed to the effects of extreme weather. Planned investments in urban infrastructure will be seriously challenged by climate change and preventive adaptation measures are urgently needed to at least maintain the current level of quality of life. Investments in the health infrastructure appear to be most effective in reducing the impact of heatwaves and investments in the traffic infrastructure most effective in reducing the impact of rainstorms. However, looking at heat and rain events together—which is realistic as they are both projected to increase and often occur in the same year—reveals that investments in water infrastructure and management have greatest potential to reduce impacts across all localities and on all social groups, particularly the lower-income classes. This is because first-order impacts caused by inadequate water infrastructure often give rise to second- or third-order impacts. Addressing the root cause is the most effective way to break cause-and-effect chains and prevent proliferation of negative consequences. Similar studies are suggested in other cities in order to support adaptation mainstreaming in complex urban environments. Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping proved a useful, semi-quantitative tool for climate change impact and adaptation assessments.  相似文献   

2010年6月中国南方持续性强降水过程：天气系统演变和青藏高原热力作用的影响   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

李雪松  罗亚丽  管兆勇 《气象学报》2014,72(3):428-446

2010年6月中国南方发生持续性强降水,其强度与2008年6月相当,超过近年来其他年份。但是,与2008年6月相比,2010年6月对流层中低层低值系统活动在青藏高原至长江中下游地区异常频繁,副热带高压(副高)位置异常偏西、强度偏强,导致低层异常风场辐合区及强降水区域相对偏北。分析2010年6月14—24日中国南方连续出现的4次持续性强降水过程,发现南亚高压、对流层中层的中纬度槽脊和西太平洋副高以及低层切变线和东移低涡是造成持续性强降水的主要天气系统。利用WRF模式对2010年6月强降水过程实施显式对流集合模拟试验,在控制试验重现观测到的地面降水和天气系统特征的基础上,在敏感性试验中将青藏高原的地表短波反照率修改为1.0,对比两组模拟试验的结果表明:控制试验中青藏高原的地表感热加热作用使得高原及其周边地区的大气温度发生变化,相应的热成风平衡调整使得对流层低层至高层大气环流和天气系统特征发生显著变化,增强了中国南方的持续性降水。200 hPa青藏高原西部形成反气旋性环流异常,东部形成气旋性环流异常,青藏高原东部南下的冷空气加强,中国南方辐散增强;500 hPa青藏高原北部的脊加强,中国东部的槽加深,副高西北侧的西南风明显增强,从青藏高原向下游传播的正涡度也显著加强;850 hPa的低涡强烈发展并逐步东移,华南沿海的西南低空急流更为强盛,导致降水区的水汽辐合、上升运动及降水强度都增强。  相似文献   

三体散射长钉（TBSS）在C波段雷达中的应用研究     

王晓君  夏文梅  段鹤  王秀英 《气象》2014,40(11):1380-1388

利用普洱CIND3830-CC天气雷达资料、地面观测资料进行统计分析,研究2004-2013年普洱C波段天气雷达中27次三体散射长钉(TBSS)的统计特征、地面降雹与TBSS的对应关系,并对TBSS在冰雹预警方面的应用进行探讨,结果表明:(1)C波段雷达中,产生TBSS的回波的反射率因子范围为55.0~68.4 dBz,70%的TBSS出现在反射率因子≥60 dBz时。(2)TBSS的维持时间为10~79 min,63%的TBSS维持时间超过20 min。(3)TBSS一般出现在4.0~9.5 km,最低出现在2.6 km,最高出现在11.4 km。(4)TBSS长5.6~22.4 km,宽1.5~14.6 km,TBSS宽度与强回波区径向外侧的60 dBz以上回波的面积成正比,但TBSS的长度与反射率因子核心的强度和宽度无明显对应关系。(5)出现TBSS时,59%的回波出现了降雹,11%的回波出现了强冰雹。(6)出现TBSS且出现降雹的过程中,TBSS预报冰雹的时间提前量为5~100 min,平均为34.5 min。(7)在出现TBSS且出现降雹的过程中,TBSS的宽度与冰雹的大小或降雹密度成正比。此外,分析了出现TBSS但未降雹的原因,找出了TBSS配合垂直液态水含量密度(D_(VIL))和45 dBz伸展高度、TBSS配合回波宽度和45 dBz伸展高度的预报冰雹的方法,在出现TBSS特征的回波中,上述方法的预报准确率分别达89%和94%(临界成功指数为0.89和0.94)。  相似文献   

极端天气气候事件监测与预测研究进展及其应用综述   总被引：8，自引：2，他引：6  

任福民  高辉  刘绿柳  宋艳玲  高荣  王遵娅  龚志强  王永光  陈丽娟  李清泉  柯宗建  孙丞虎  贾小龙 《气象》2014,40(7):860-874

极端天气气候事件(简称"极端事件")分为单站极端事件和区域性极端事件。本文回顾了极端事件的研究进展,首先回顾了单站极端温度、极端降水和干旱事件的观测研究及相关指数,进而对近年来不断增多的区域性极端事件研究做了简要回顾,最后还回顾了极端事件气候预测研究进展。同时,对国内外在极端事件气候监测和预测业务现状进行了初步总结,并指出:在极端事件气候监测方面中国的业务产品较丰富,并率先开展了针对区域性极端事件的监测业务,但在产品表现形式上缺乏统一组织,特别是英文产品表现力严重不足;在极端事件气候预测方面,国家气候中心发展了两种方法:一个是基于物理统计的BP-CCA和OSR的干旱预测方法,另一个基于国家气候中心月动力延伸预报模式(DERF)的高温预测方法。最后,对极端事件监测和预测业务发展及相关科学问题给出展望,指出应根据极端事件的业务需求继续加强相关研究和业务能力建设。  相似文献   

北京地区自动站降水特征的聚类分析   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3  

刘伟东  尤焕苓  任国玉  杨萍  张本志 《气象》2014,40(7):844-851

利用2007—2010年北京123个自动气象站逐时降水观测资料,采用聚类分析方法,对北京的主城区、西部和北部区、东北区、东南区共分为4个区域的逐时降水时空分布特征进行了分析。结果表明:通过与实际地形和下垫面类型比较,自动站分类较为合理,避免了在区域划分方面的主观因素影响。主城区降水集中时段最为突出,集中出现在7月逐日20—00时,且降水强度最强,降水量较大,降水小时数不多。西部和北部区降水集中出现在6月逐日18—20时、7月逐日23时至次日03时,降水小时数最多,降水强度不大,降水量不大。东北区降水主要集中出现在7月逐日00—08时和17—23时,降水小时数较多,降水强度不大,降水量最大;东南区降水主要集中出现在7月的逐日02—04时,降水小时数少,降水强度较大,降水量较大。  相似文献   

2014年4月大气环流和天气分析   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

樊利强  张涛  孙瑾 《气象》2014,40(7):898-904

2014年4月大气环流特征为,北半球极涡呈单极型分布,中心位于喀拉海北端附近;亚洲大陆东部高压脊强度偏强,导致4月我国气温较常年同期(11.0℃)偏高1.1℃,为1961年同期以来第五高值。东亚大槽强度和位置、南支系统和西北太平洋副热带高压接近常年平均状况。4月全国平均降水量为43.7 mm,比常年同期略偏少。月内,江南南部和华南等地出现短时强降水、雷雨大风等强对流天气;北方地区出现多次沙尘天气过程;此外,部分站次出现极端高温、极端降温事件。  相似文献   

太阳能光伏发电预报方法的应用效果检验与评价     

王林  陈正洪  唐俊 《气象》2014,40(8):1006-1012

基于湖北省气象新能源研究中心光伏电站一年完整的发电数据与同期气象资料,对辐射和发电功率短期预报方法进行检验分析,结果表明:(1)太阳辐射度预报与实况有很好的对应关系,相关系数在0.77以上,均通过a=0.001的显著性水平检验。(2)光伏发电功率预报的短期方法中,以模式辐照度订正值代入光电转换模型的方法最优,预报第一天的相对均方根误差为0.16。(3)太阳辐射预报及光伏发电功率预报随太阳高度角变化而呈一定的规律性,冬季中午误差最大,夏季晚上误差最小;阴雨天气误差明显高于晴天。如何降低阴雨天气预报时的误差将是下一步工作中需要研究的重点。  相似文献